Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Understanding China

China is a country that has a very rich and long history, captured excellently by John Bryan Starr in his book Understanding China. The focus of the book is to give the reader an overall look at the country’s history, economy, politics, people and culture. The book begins by describing its recent political history. For many years, China was not a part of the world economy because its leaders chose to close its borders to the world. The death of its famous leader Mao Zedong in 1976 began the changing of the political guard in China, along with the gradual opening of its economy to the world.

The book starts by discussing the leadership change that China has experienced in the last 30 years. Initially, Deng Xiaoping (a product of the Chinese Communist revolution and one of the founders of the contemporary Chinese political system) tried to install leaders in positions to succeed him upon his eventual retirement from duties of the State. However, he was unsuccessful in his first two attempts. Finally, he was able to bring in a leader Jiang Zemin, who was not like the old guard (born in the Chinese hinterlands, ill-educated and extremely conservative), but rather a hybrid of the old Chinese mentality and the more modern global outlook. The rapid change that has occurred in China over the last half century 30 has produced leaders with very different lives, careers, and experiences than their predecessors. The people who make up this new generation of leaders differ in training, perceptions, connections, and aspirations.

The book looks to explore three main questions, namely – What are the principal problems confronting China today? What is the capacity of the Chinese political system to deal with these problems successfully? And, given the answers to these two questions, how might the political situation play itself out in the near term. The book discusses the critical problems facing China’s leaders today. These critical problems are those the author believes will threaten the nation’s ability to continue on its current trajectory of economic development. The first is the issue of government state-owned enterprises loosing money. The majority of these industrial enterprises are kept afloat by the Chinese government with loans and subsidies. This is done mainly to keep people employed and keep up the face of being a socialist country. The next problem is that of the Chinese banking system. Estimates suggest according to the book that the four largest state-owned banks in China have made circa $200 billion USD in bad debt, by providing the funds that float the state-owned enterprises mentioned above. (However, recently in the news, it was mentioned that some of China’s big banks are currently in the process of launching IPO’s, so this might prove to be a means of shoring up their cash base.)

Another critical problem facing China is the issue of urban unemployment. As a result of the financial problems the state-owned enterprises are facing, a majority of the workforce is put on reduced hours or temporary furlough. The state employs a large workforce and as such their productivity is very low as there are too many people trying to do too few jobs. Further, the inflow of workers from the countryside into China’s big cities in search of lucrative work is a big issue facing the government. It is estimated that about 100 million workers can be categorized in this manner. The disparity between the have’s and have-not’s is another issue facing the Chinese government according to the author. The gap in the standard of living between those in the urban centers and those in the country side is large and growing. The issue of taxation by the local government upon that taken by the state is a major source of dissatisfaction in the countryside. They believe that they are taxed excessively to the detriment of their way of life. If left uncontrolled, this could spiral into a major problem as recent demonstrations have shown.

Food is the next critical problem that the Chinese government will face in the coming years. The amount of arable land in China is shrinking, while the population continues to grow. China feeds 20 percent of the world’s population on less than 7 percent of the world’s arable land. Further, economic development has meant that a lot of this land is being used for housing and commercial purposes in lieu of farming. They face a balancing act of controlling the population in the country and also increasing the amount of food harvested from year to year. This control of the population is proving to be quite worrisome for the Chinese government. They have instituted a one-child policy in China, which for the most part has controlled the population. However, the Chinese population is expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2015.

The problem of environmental pollution is another issue facing the Chinese government. A large proportion of the power plants that are used in China are made up of coal-fired power plants. The bituminous coal found in large quantities in China is exclusively used in these power plants, and is in fact a very large source of the pollution attributed to China. According to the author, 80 percent of China’s bodies of freshwater are polluted, and 90 percent of the water flowing through the city is non-drinkable. Lastly, the interactions between China and its territories – Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau is a source of continuous friction between the Chinese government and the peoples who live in these countries.

The book details some of the geographic similarities between the United States and China. China covers about 3.7 million square miles, almost the same as the USA at 3.6 million square miles. Also, the two countries sit on roughly the same latitude; as are Beijing and New York and also Shanghai and New Orleans. However, as much as they share some similarities, they have some major differences. Firstly, only about a third of the United States is taken up with mountains and desert, while in China the reverse is true. Forty percent of the United States has land available for cultivation, while China only has about 10 percent available. Also, the rivers in the United States run from north to south, while those in China run from west to east. The population of the United States is spread around the entire country (mostly along the coasts), while most of the population of China live on the eastern coast of China.

Due to the numerous peoples that make up China, one finds that the Chinese army is the only denominator that keeps everyone together. This fact has made the Chinese army very influential and strong. The author suggests that sometimes it seems like the army controls the Chinese government rather than it being the other way around. This apparent fact has led China’s neighbors to increasing their military capacities in anticipation of China’s eventual emergence as the next super power of the world.